February 4, 2016   Posted by: Wouter Vermeersch

2016 Forecast Part 2: PV Supply

2015 Forecast Vooruitblik B

• 2016: global PV demand and supply in balance
• Big-6 producers: 50% (> 30 GWp)
• Continued expansion of production capacity

• 2017: possible oversupply

Solar Media forecasts that the big-6 solar panel manufacturers (Trina, Canadian Solar, Jinko, Yingli, JA and Hanwha Q Cells) will further increase their market share in 2016 to almost 50% of global PV supply (> 30 GWp).

EnergyTrend found out that Tier 1 and Tier 2 producers from China and Taiwan all have plans to increase cell and module production, either by expanding locally or abroad.

In reaction to the import duties imposed by the US and the EU and coupled with rising labour costs in coastal cities, major Chinese producers are expanding their manufacturing bases to other countries like Vietnam, Thailand, South-Korea and Turkey.

Overall global module supply and demand will be in balance during 2016, with slight undersupply in the wafer value chain. However, according to GTM Research, analysts expect continued investment in capacity as suppliers look to stay in line with an accelerating demand landscape over the next few years. This could cause significant market oversupply of cells and modules in 2017.

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  1. […] In Europe, two major variables will further affect prices during 2016: the existing minimum import price (MIP) for Chinese cells and modules and the euro-dollar exchange rate for non-Chinese cells and modules. Read also: Part 1: PV Demand Part 2: PV Supply […]