January 13, 2016 Posted by: Wouter Vermeersch
2016 Forecast Part 1: PV Demand
• Worldwide PV demand 2016: 59 GWp
• Largest worldwide markets: China, US and Japan
• EU PV Demand 2016: 6 GWp (10%)
• Largest EU markets: UK, Germany and France
According to market research agency EnergyTrend, solar installations worldwide for 2015 are estimated at 53 GWp, amounting to a 20% growth compared to 2014. For 2016 total installations are expected to reach 59 GWp (+11%).China, the US and Japan are projected to account for 61% of this volume.
In Europe, the solar import duties on Chinese solar panels got extended, which will be detrimental for solar project development:
the market will probably continue to drop from 8 GWp in 2015 to 6 GWp (-25%) in 2016. The UK is expected to lead in terms of PV installations, followed by Germany and France. As the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) projects an installation boom in the first quarter of 2016, it believes that the total installations will surpass 2 GWp. Yet the annual installations would decrease compared to 2015 (3,4 GWp – 11 months). In Germany, the annual installations have been decreasing since 2014, because of FiT cuts and some related changes, to 1,28 GWp in the first 11 months of 2015. Accordingly, the government decided to remain the current FiT rates unchanged from January to March, 2016. The government of France doubled the volume accepted under its CRE3 solar tender for solar installations exceeding 250 kWp and increased the feed-in-tariff for installations under 100 kWp. This should mitigate an expected drop in PV activity in 2016, and support the market to return to 1,5 to 2 GWp as from 2017.